УДК: 330
DOI: https://doi.org/10.36887/2524-0455-2021-3-12
The article proposes the procedure for taking risk factors into account when carrying out innovative transformations based on the clarification of their classification and the development of methodical tools for carrying out a specific risk analysis. Based on the available theoretical approaches to the definition of the “risk” category, views on risk situations in the process of innovative transformations, the author’s definition of the concept of “risk of innovative activity” was formulated. The classification of the risks of innovative activity is presented, which is based on various signs of internal and external risks, their composition and essence are given. It is substantiated that only a systematic approach to the accounting and analytical provision of the display of risk factors, taking into account their mutual influence, can create a concept of the successful operation of the enterprise as a whole. The methods of evaluating the effectiveness of an innovative technological project, taking into account the risk, are considered separately. It has been established that the correct assessment of the probability of risk factors makes it possible to objectively present the amount of possible costs and losses associated with technological rehabilitation at the stage of forecasting the results of innovative transformations, and to outline ways to prevent them based on the modeling of the selection process. The types of models used to determine the priority of tasks related to technological rehabilitation of production on the basis of the formed innovations portfolio are considered. The scheme for the combination of simulation modeling and scenario analysis for the quantitative assessment of investment risk is proposed, which includes eight steps. The target function associated with the probability of commercially successful implementation of the technological rehabilitation project based on innovative production transformations has been determined.
Keywords: risk of innovative activity, factors, innovative transformations, combination, classification, efficiency.
References.
- Akulov, A.Ja. (2012). «Modern innovative risks and methods of their reduction». Innovacionnoe razvitie jekonomiki Rossii: novyj jetap.: Available at: http://www.ieay.ru/nauch/sc_article/2012/04/Akulov.shtml.
- Bazilevich, A.I (2009). Innovacionnyj menedzhment predprijatija. [Innovative management of the enterprise.]. JuNITI. Moscow. Russia.
- Bujmov, A.S. (2011). Upravlenie riskami innovacionnogo proekta promyshlennogo predprijatija. [Risk management of an innovative project of an industrial enterprise]. D. Thesis: 08.00.05 Chelyabinsk. Russia.
- Kushnir, A.M. (2012). «Risk management of innovative projects: a systematic approach». Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta imeni S.Ju. Vitte. Serija 1. Jekonomika i upravlenie. no.1. pp. 65-71.
- Mahteva, I.P. (2013). «Features of risk classification in the management of innovative projects of holdings». Vestnik Samarskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. no. 7 (105). pp. 59-62.
- Prokop’eva, A.V. (2012). «The existence of innovation risk in the activities of an economic entity». Sovremennye issledovanija social’nyh problem. no. 3 (11). Available at: http://sisp.nkras.ru/e-ru/issues/2012/3/prokopeva.pdf.
- Damodaran, A. (2005). Investicionnaja ocenka: instrumenty i metody ocenki ljubyh aktivov. [Investment appraisal: tools and methods for assessing any assets]. Al’pina Biznes Buks. Moscow. Russia.
- Sen’kov, A.V., Bobrjakov, A.V. (2016). «Fuzzy ontological model for monitoring and managing complex risks of a complex economic system on the example of a university». Mezhdunarodnyj zhurnal inform. tehnologij i jenergojeffektivnosti. T.1. №1. pp. 2-10.
- Trejman, M.G., Varygina O.S. (2017). «Methods for assessing and managing risks at a resource supply enterprise (on the example of PrJSC “TGC-1”)». Nauchnyj zhurnal NIU ITMO. Serija Ekonomika i ekologіcheskij menedzhment. 4. pp. 64-73.
- Dzjuba, S.A. (1994). Analiz i sravnenie investicionnyh proektov s uchetom riska. [Analysis and comparison of investment projects taking into account risk]. RAN Sib. otd. Sib. jenerget. in-t im. L.A. Melent’eva- Prepr. Irkutsk. Russia.
- Kantorovich, L.V. (1966). Matematicheskie modeli i metody optimal’nogo planirovanija. [Mathematical models and methods of optimal planning]. Nauka, Sib.otdel. Novosibirsk. Russia.
- Valreven, K.D. (1993). Upravlenie riskami kommercheskogo banka. [Commercial bank risk management]. Institut jekonomicheskogo razvitija Mirovogo banka. Washington. USA.
- L’juis, R.D., Rajfa, H. (1961). Igry i reshenija. [Games and Solutions]. Inostr. lit. Moscow. Russia.
- Elektronnij resurs. URL: http://www.rusnauka.com/2_KAND_2011/Economics/
- Fonshtejn, N. M., Balabana, A. M. (in ed.) (1998). Venchurnyj kapital i innovacii. Otchet OJeSR: Sb. «Venchurnoe finansirovanie: teorija i praktika». [Venture capital and innovations. OECD report: Sat. “Venture financing: theory and practice”]. Centr kommercializacii tehnologij. Russia.
The article was received 21.03.2021
Quote article, APA style
Popov O. , Mekhovych S. , Kobielieva T. 21.03.2021. Classification of risks when implementing innovative transformations. Actual problems of innovative economy and law. 2021. №3. 66-71 pp. https://doi.org/10.36887/2524-0455-2021-3-12
Quote article, MLA style
Popov O. , Mekhovych S. , Kobielieva T. Classification of risks when implementing innovative transformations. Actual problems of innovative economy and law. 21.03.2021. https://doi.org/10.36887/2524-0455-2021-3-12
